When Wainwright has pitched, hes been traditionally one of the better pitchers in the league, having won 20 games twice, 19 games on two other occasions, and led the league twice. But the Cardinals and the pitcher Cardinals changed the schedule for his first start; Flaherty threw on the backfields instead. Well have to wait and see. 156-111, 3.18 ERA, 2,286 strikeouts, 126 adjusted ERA. No Cy's (albeit 4 top 3 finishes). And right now, he simply isnt there. That includes 2020, a season shortened by the pandemic. A frequently cited statistic for determining Hall worthiness is the average production of a Hall of Famer at that position, though my preferred approach is to consider a players worthiness not according to the average at a position among a subset of players who are sometimes transcendent and sometimes unworthy, but rather to ask, Is this guy the (fill in ordinal number of Hall of Famers at position) best (fill in position) ever? By Hybrid JAWS, Yadier Molina is the 13th greatest catcher of all-time (two of the ones ahead of him, Buster Posey and Joe Mauer, are not yet Hall-eligible), and there are sixteen catchers in the Hall of Fame. 76-43, 3.18 ERA, 1,183 strikeouts, 124 adjusted ERA. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Hes pitched for five teams in two different leagues, which is unusual for a pitcher with such a successful resume. What's the Dodgers' plan at shortstop? According to tracking done by Baseball Reference he faced mostly Double A hitters. {* backButton *} But in evaluating Wainwright by the standards of the modern starting pitchers, he has a path albeit a narrow one that requires him to sustain his late-30s rebirth for at least one and possibly two more seasons that seemed impossible when he was in the midst of an extended sunset phase late in the 2010s. He was the first pitcher aged 39 or older since Mike Mussina in 2008 to throw at least 200 innings with an ERA+ of 125 or better. That being said, the question I had is what a retirement for Adam Wainwright . If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Chapman notched his 300th save on August 26, but hes had an unimpressive season, walking 16.2% of hitters en route to a 3.68 ERA and 4.16, all career worsts. Adam Wainwright Future Hall of Fame Candidates: N.L. Sabathia has largely been a disappointment since signing a nine-figure extension with the team, and he likely wont be retained when his contract expires after this season. But is it a Hall of Fame caliber career? The pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, in which Wainwright went 5-3 with a 3.15 ERA in 10 starts, amounted to a fourth lost season for the right-hander, who missed all of 2011 recovering from Tommy John surgery and made just seven appearances (four starts) due to a torn Achilles in 2015 before he was limited to eight starts by right elbow inflammation in 2018. Write some stories about it! Wainwright said. Laurie Skrivan, St, Louis Post-Dispatch Here's a look at some other top Cardinals not in the Hall of Fame. One other thing to note: since my reference point for old WAR and JAWS figures dates back to January 2021, some portion of these players gains may be due to updates to bWAR itself, particularly via changes to 19 and 20 park factors and tweaks to 201720 Defensive Runs Saved that were announced in March, but also due to a second update to 2020 park factors that just went live on Tuesday. Verlanders resume is impressive; hes led the league in strikeouts four times, wins twice, won a pitching triple crown, and thrown two no-hitters. But theres a rhythm to the ritual. Can Adam Wainwright join St. Louis Cardinals teammates in Hall of Fame? Between that, his three Cy Youngs, and eight All-Star appearances, hes probably punched his ticket even before getting to 200 wins (hes at 187). Guerrero is on the Dominican Republic roster for this months World Baseball Classic. The ageless Bartolo Colon leads all active pitchers with 235, CC Sabathia is next at 230, and then its down to John Lackey at 180. Adam Parrish Wainwright was born on August 30, 1981, in Brunswick, Georgia. Josh Donaldson, third base (43.8 career | 41.2 Peak | 42.5 JAWS, +1.5 JAWS). And hes no slouch in the regular season Bumgarner is a four-time All-Star with a sub-3.00 career ERA, a high career strikeout rate, and hes even connected for 16 home runs at the plate. 177-110, 3.51 ERA, 2,272 strikeouts, 122 adjusted ERA. His contract (seven years, $175 million) ensures he will pitch in Seattle at least through 2019, but his velocity numbers and declining ERA suggest his career may be on the downside. Were just giving him a little extra time in between appearances to rebound from his first time out. Hes actually been tougher to hit than in any season since 2016, but his 14% walk rate has created more traffic than ever, and hes blown five of 35 save chances, though three of those were in consecutive outings in mid-July, accounting for seven of the 16 earned runs hes allowed. A two-homer, two-walk game on Wednesday added half a win to whats now his seventh-best season (4.5 WAR); with a big finish, he can approach the peak standard (42.7 WAR). While a Cy Young Award does not guarantee entry, it certainly helps. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) Adam Wainwright was one of many players lucky enough to have shared a clubhouse with Scott Rolen, the newest member of the Baseball Hall of Fame.. Hell get some work in between now and then, and hopefully that will get him on track. Here's how WBC offenses stack up with MLB's best, Scherzer tries to test pitch clock limits, gets balk, Jays 'playing it safe' after Guerrero tweaks knee, PitchCom-tipping: Loud device leaks Twins calls, Eflin's first start after $40M deal impresses Rays, Rangers' Leclerc to miss WBC with neck injury, Rockies' Rodgers may need surgery, '23 at risk, Rojas to withdraw from WBC, stay with Dodgers. But theres no alarm. So basically what Im saying is that if Adam Wainwright has a once-every-seventy-five-years season, he should probably make it into Cooperstown. But what is particularly interesting to examine with regards to Wainwright is that if Wainwright were elected, he would not even be close to the worst starting pitcher in Cooperstown. Of course, Wainwright and the Cardinals gave it the nothing to see here treatment. Assuming he pitches in 2022, a year in which I am assuming Major League Baseball will indeed be played, which he has already announced will be his last, Wainwrights first round of Hall of Fame votes would not even be revealed until 2028. No one should expect to make money from the picks and predictions discussed on this website. Queried about his Cooperstown credentials during the Cardinals visit to Citi Field last month, Wainwright grinned while seemingly acknowledging his counting numbers he has 184 wins and 2,004 strikeouts are not going to measure up to most of the starting pitchers enshrined in Cooperstown. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. I am a big fan, not as a universal absolute but as a general guideline, of the Jay Jaffe JAWS system, a thing I have mentioned repeatedly in my writing, though I also prefer to use a hybrid model which incorporates a players career performance and his seven best individual seasons (his peak) as measured not only by Baseball Reference but by FanGraphs (in most non-catcher cases, over the course of a career, this doesnt make a huge difference, but in the most discussed cases, the margins are so thin that I am happy to look at as much data as possible). Saturday marked the end of an era for the St. Louis Cardinals. Nelson Cruz, right field (42.2 career | 30.1 Peak | 36.1 JAWS, +1.3 JAWS). Among those who are retired and eligible for Cooperstown, the 65th greatest starter of all-time is actually a pretty sufficiently big nameDwight Gooden. Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. Madison Bumgarner is still just 27 years old, but hes already etched his name into baseball lore as one of the greatest big-game pitchers of all-time. He surpassed 200 wins in 2019 (hes at 219 now), but with his strikeout rate dipping from 24.5% last year to 17.0% this year, hes still 201 strikeouts away from 3,000 and will probably need two seasons to reach the milestone instead of one. He has similar numbers (albeit slightly worse) than Roy Halladay. Im not sure its a good idea for Wainwright to proceed with his WBC plans, but the Cardinals wont stop him from going. It's an ex-Chip's Worldand we're just picking up the pieces. While I dont think the statistical mistake that was inducting Rick Ferrell means that we should induct Mickey Tettleton, in my perfect world we would have sixteen Hall of Famers at the catcher position, though the ones who are in would be different (for instance, among the currently eligible, Gene Tenace would be there), and we would go from there. (approx 1 - 2 per week). by Retrosheet. I sincerely hope Flaherty is fine and that theres no reason for concern. Sabathia has a chance to become the 17th pitcher in history to record 3,000 strikeouts, which would give his candidacy a boost. For the last 35 years Bernie Miklasz has entertained, enlightened, and connected with generations of St. Louis sports fans. Hes got a long ways to go to reach 200 wins (he has 112), but hes already at 2,031 strikeouts. Strasburgs 2.86 FIP suggests hes outperformed his 3.18 ERA, and his strikeout rate has been stellar. I want to confine my results to the integration era, as, while this whole exercise is based on some level of silliness, I dont think asking Adam Wainwright to win 40 games and pitch 400 innings is particularly fair. While these numbers are impressive, they may not be enough to convince voters that Adam Wainwright is a Hall of Famer. FASTBALLS JET ACROSS the baseball atmosphere in this era, booming into catchers' mitts at 100 mph or faster, and amid that sound of speed, there is Adam Wainwright's curveball. Please contact us. MLB starting pitcher who won a World Series Championship with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2006 and was a member of the Cardinals . . They cited various ailments that impacted Wainos performance. Im skeptical only because of the history of how the Cardinals do this when a pitcher doesnt pitch, or takes a delay before his next assignment. It's a career that includes 10 All-Star Games, nine Gold Gloves, four Platinum Gloves, two World Series titles and plenty of adulation from the St. Louis area and beyond. Wins may not matter as much these days, but his 195 wins would make him just the seventh player to be inducted as a starting pitcher with fewer than 200 victories. He'll retire with honors and accolades, becoming a fine coach and St. Louis area legend. Enter your email below and we'll send you another email. The hot air balloon . His velocity has dropped again, though Wainwright did push it up a little in his second start. He had a 4.99 ERA in his last 11 starts in 2022 including a 7.22 ERA in his final six starts. The just-turned-40-year-old is currently in the midst of a late-career renaissance (2.97 ERA, 3.1 WAR), leaving many to wonder what might have been if not for the injuries that effectively cost him three seasons from ages 29 to 36. That's an average of 174 innings per year. Drew. Strikeouts are booming like never before. Adam Wainwright (44.0 career | 35.5 Peak | 39.8 JAWS, +2.1 JAWS). The good news is that even with a modest 2.6 WAR this year, hes in his seventh-best season and can make tracks towards the third base peak standard (43.1 WAR). That may be what landed him on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation this year. While best known for his voice as the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch for 26 years, Bernie has also written for The Athletic, Dallas Morning News and Baltimore News American. And I finally reached the point where I just ignored the spin and started to interpret the lack of candor as a possible warning sign. He probably wont gain much more ground this year even assuming he does return, and as with the pitchers on either side of him in this list, free agency looms, though it seems unthinkable the Dodgers will let him depart. But Adam Wainwright's story also isn't complete. But lets see: frequently injured pitcher, already off schedule in spring training, not quite prepared for a full-on pitching test. His sinker averaged 84.9 mph, a 3.7 percent decrease from 2022. Scherzer and Hernandez are among a group of pitchers at somewhat similar points in their potential Hall of Fame paths; Verlander, Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke, Adam Wainwright and Jon Lester are in . Look at that. Hernandez also holds the distinction of having been the last MLB pitcher to throw a perfect game (2012). St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright joins Scott Braun, Erik Kratz, Todd Frazier, and AJ Pierzynski to talk about his final season and the legacy he's left behind. Before going down, he made solid progress towards the 200-win and 3,000 strikeout milestones; hes at 184 and 2,653, respectively, the latter thanks to a 30.1% strikeout rate, his best since 2016. Injuries have plagued Adam Wainwright more than the other pitchers on this list; hes going to be 36 in a few months and hes logged just 1,800 innings due to Tommy John surgery (2011) and an Achilles tendon rupture (2015). On one hand, its spring training and a lot of pitchers get pounded early in exhibition games as they prepare for the run-up to the regular season. If this is the end, Wainwright is leaving behind a solid career. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images), Wainwright strongly hinted he would retire alongside longtime batterymate Yadier Molina following next season. That seems to be a pretty good baseline.. The best-of-three series would not go in the Cardinals' favor, falling 2-0 to the eventual World Series participant. Wainwright has certainly had a long and successful career, but has it been enough to warrant enshirement in the Hall of Fame? But over the last three seasons, Jack has pitched only 154 innings. Your email address will not be published. Flahertys exhibition-season debut was supposed to happen Saturday, but now the assignment has been switched to Sunday. . He went 17-7 with 174 strikeouts and a 3.05 ERA in 32 starts spanning 206 1/3 innings the third-highest total in the majors. For this exercise, Im focused mainly on mid- or late-career players rather than early-career ones. All picks and predictions are suggestions only. Sure there are. A similarly impressive 2022 and perhaps 2023, though upon signing a one-year extension with the Cardinals last week, Wainwright strongly hinted he would retire alongside longtime batterymate Yadier Molina following next season added to his 2017-14 peak would nudge him ever closer to a Cooperstown-worthy body of work and at the least underline the kind of company hes already keeping. You may have created an account with another Rogers Media account that can be used to sign in here. Strasburg hasnt been a disappointment, but he also hasnt lit the world on fire. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. No ones winning 300 games again, probably, Maybe there will be a couple guys that have a chance Claytons got a chance, Max maybe. Arizona Diamondbacks. Is Adam Wainwright in the Hall of Fame? Were not concerned. The 2022 campaign was supposed to be the last for Adam Wainwright as well, although he has left the door slightly open for a return next year. Adam Wainwright was glad to see Jason Isringhausen enter the Cardinals Hall of Fame: "He had a profound impact on my career and helped me dramatically." He was hit hard four balls hit off him registered exit velocities higher than 104 mph, including a 112.1 mph solo moonshot of a homer off the bat of Jos Abreu. Those skills may eventually result in a spot in the Hall of Fame. Wainwright is absolutely not going to make it to Cooperstown, and the numbers say he shouldn't, but you can squint and you can cherry-pick statistics to make an argument for Wainwright if you enter with an agenda. The minute Adam Wainwright is eligible, he will easily cruise into the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame, with the only possible road block being if he gets caught in the midst of a logjam with Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina (though if the Cardinals were ever going to make an exception and admit three people in one year, this would seemingly be the case). Astros @ Cardinals. And while deGromcontinued to blast 100-mph fastball after 100-mph fastball past hitterseven while missing turns here and there due to what were believed (by the Mets, at least) to be minor and disconnected injuries, he finally landed on the IL in early July with forearm inflammation. His 195 career wins have him tied for 132nd all-time, and his career strikeouts currently have him sitting 71st all-time. Has Adam Wainwright done enough to deserve a place in the Hall of Fame? He answers the tough question on if his legacy is enough to get him into the MLB Hall of Fame alongside the all-time greats.Follow all our social media channels for more content!https://twitter.com/FoulTerritoryTVhttps://www.instagram.com/foulterritoryshow/https://www.tiktok.com/@foulterritoryshowhttps://www.facebook.com/FoulTerritoryShowhttps://www.twitch.tv/foulterritoryshow On Wednesday, I took a swing at a question often asked of me: Which players have helped their Hall of Fame cases the most this year? Adam Wainwright strikes out Chas McCormick swinging in the top of the 1st inning, one of his two strikeouts over three innings of work. At least not for starting pitchers. But Adam Wainwrights story also isnt complete. Wainwright was a three time All Star and two time Gold Glove winner, finishing in the top three of the NL Cy Young vote four times. After the divorce, his mother, Nancy, became a real estate agent and raised the boys on her own. This is the first time since 2010 that all three are in . Yadier Molina, catcher (58.1 career fWAR (incl. Yadier Molina is arguably one of the best defensive catchers in the history of baseball. This doesnt mean that Wainwright definitely deserves to make itTim Hudson, who barely qualified for a second turn on the BBWAA ballot and didnt receive the 5% of votes needed to qualify for a third, ranks ahead of him, for instance. Or could it be that a lot of this is happening because Wainwright is 41 years old and headed to his 42nd birthday on Aug. 30? Im going to disregard them for now, though all five should (and all but Sabathia probably will) make it eventually. I wouldnt expect Wainwright to be at his best at this stage. Sales unconventional windup seems to leave open the idea of Tommy John surgery or at least a serious injury, but he has averaged 30 starts per season since entering the rotation in 12. Annual promotional dates for the Purina Pooches in the Ballpark game and Edward Jones Cardinals Hall of Fame Weekend are scheduled for April 30 and August 26-28, respectively. At least hes in better shape than 31-year-old Freddie Freeman (41.8/32.1/37.0, +1.5 JAWS), who only recently surpassed last years 3.3 WAR. Sabermetrics lover. PITTSBURGH, PA - AUGUST 28: Adam Wainwright #50 of, the St. Louis Cardinals applauds after a defensive play by Nolan Arenado #28 in the first inning during the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on August 28, 2021 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. All of the starters have a JAWS of at least 42.0; roughly speaking, thats the equivalent of seven six-win seasons, a point at which I start to take mid-career pitchers seriously. On 30-8-1981 Adam Wainwright (nickname: Adam) was born in Brunswick, Georgia, United States. I try to stay out of it as much as possible.. Its just hard to pitch that long nowadays, without injuries especially. Be the first one to comment on this story. Always ranking QBs. Bernie invites you to listen to his opinionated and analytical sports-talk show on 590 The Fan, KFNS-AM. Jim Bowden (The Athletic) was at Cardinal camp earlier this week and asked president of baseball operations John Mozeliak about Flahertys status. Focusing on what hes better at: Scherzer is just 19 strikeouts away from 3,000 and should reach the milestone this month, surpassing the likes of Juan Marichal, Roy Halladay, and Bob Feller on the JAWS leaderboard. Five years ago, Max Scherzer had no Hall of Fame case. His 2011 season, in which he went 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA and led the league in a slew of categories wins, ERA, games started, innings pitched, strikeouts, WHIP, adjusted ERA, and hits allowed per nine innings earned him a distinction that hadnt been accomplished since Roger Clemens in 1986. Fantasy baseball: Which prospects have fantasy value in 2023? Hes produced 5.0 WAR with his pitching but -0.6 WAR with his hitting with a remarkable .000/.000/.000 line taking this no-hitter thing a bit too literally through 50 PA; on Wednesday night, he surpassed Wei-Yin Chens record for season-opening futility, set in 2016. {* traditionalSignIn_signInButton *}, Comment and participate in our online community. Its available on your preferred podcast platform. Now his current difficulties are being downplayed because the leg/glute tightness, the back spasms, the finger. He posted a 195-117 record with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.216 WHiP, striking out 2147 batters with 695 walks in his 2567.1 innings. But at least it wont be historically egregious. Perhaps his national profile and general likability increases due to his seemingly inevitable second act as a broadcasterWainwright received rave reviews as a postseason broadcaster last yearand this media visibility helps him in a media-driven contest such as Hall of Fame balloting. Its an unfortunate injury that was sustained to of all places his throwing shoulder. Hes made two starts this spring, covering five total innings. Sales efficiency numbers are superb he has a 2.99 career ERA, a 1.054 WHIP, a 4.96 K:BB ratio, and hes working on five straight All-Star trips. The three Cy Young Awards should be enough to get him into the Hall of Fame. Flaherty pitched 348 innings over the 2018 and 2019 seasons. This year he was so good that he accrued 5.1 WAR (including 0.6 on the offensive side) in his 15 starts before going down, his fourth-highest total. It's not the be-all end-all but his baseball reference kind of shows that he really shouldn't make it. There are some people that feel Wainwright will join his legendary teammates in Cooperstown at some point in time, a trio of Hall of Famers all departing the Cardinals at the same time. Don't miss out - sign up for our newsletters! Your favorite teams, topics, and players all on your favorite mobile devices. Its not like hes been injury-prone; Price has led the league in games started three times and innings pitched twice.