. The US Air Force boasts nearly 2300 warplanes in service, with another 1422 aircraft in use for the US Navy and Marines, Janes calculates. Blood, sweat and tears. The Australian Imperial Force (AIF) was of marginal utility. Sign up for the weekly What in the World newsletter here. the outcome for the U.S. was not a good one, a new report revealed this week. So it would be an even match. "This decision over the possibility of war with China could be made more difficult because of ANZUS. China would seek to pluck out the eyes and ears of the US and allies to make them blind on the battlefield, said Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Modern aircraft particularly the F-35 stealth fighters in Australias arsenal need tender loving care. If that's what they mean, their view should be rejected in favour of Australian sovereignty and parliamentary authorisation.". Our former role in the establishment of the UN is an exemplar of the kind of country we should aspire to be. China had 55 small war ships in 2020, more than double the number it had five years ago. China is now the dominant global industrial power by many measures. For the US, the bigger the coalition of countries joining it in any war, the better. But leaders in Washington also need to avoid stumbling carelessly into a war with China because it would be unlike anything ever faced by Americans. "When the US closed down Bagram airbase in Afghanistan the Afghan Army collapsed. Hopefully Australian statesmen would have played a significant role in the lead up to a breakdown in cross straits relations.". And the operating distances are enormous. Critically, the United States is no longer able to outproduce China in advanced weapons and other supplies needed in a war, which the current one in Ukraine has made clear. "He would rather support Taiwan and enlist countries around the world in sanctioning or condemning China. Surrounded: Disturbing report from Ukraine. There is a pathway to a future through peaceful dialogue, but its a hard path, and it needs to be worked.. No other country on the planet, save New Zealand, is better placed from a purely defensive perspective. "Given the rate at which the Chinese forces are modernising and building both capability and capacity, a Chinese victory over the US is the more likely outcome beyond 2035. Especially without comprehensive and numerous missile defence systems. But which one would have military superiority in outright conflict? But Chinas been preparing for this for decades. The war in Ukraine reminds us of how uncertain these things canbe for both sides. This means any idea of sustained operations within the Pacific-spanning reach of Chinas ballistic and cruise missiles is likely optimistic. While most members voted in favor of the six U.N. General Assembly resolutions passed since last . Chris Zappone and Eryk Bagshaw June 30, 2021 China-US superpower showdown: military strength Matthew Absalom-Wong According to the late Sir James Plimsoll [in conversation with me], Mao Zedong said to Prime Minister Nehru when the two met in 1954 that, in a war with any adversary China could afford to dedicate 100 million dead. "Ultimately, I do not see how America could inflict enough damage on China to force Beijing to concede over Taiwan, without using nuclear weapons. Six large amphibious vessels have been launched, three since 2015, and a third aircraft carrier, larger than its predecessors, will soon be completed. A war would halt this trade (as well as American and allied shipments to China). But would Australia immediately take up the fight? Major combat against the US means two nuclear-armed states fighting each other. The general sense among Western European publics is that the current situation in Ukraine is stalemate, rather than one side having an advantage. The national broadcaster carried out the interviews with "four of Australia's most experienced military strategists" But the Chinese are prepared to wage a much broader type of warfare that would reach deep into American society. Part 1. "Unlike the experience of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan that affected only the members deployed into conflict, and their families, a war with China will have an impact on all Australians economically, financially, and personally. "Even so, the UN has not been able to avert war. There are still hundreds of diplomats and politicians around the world including in Canberra working openly and behind the scenes to ensuretensions between China and the US never escalate into war. But rhetoric about the international rules-based order and Chinas failure to sign up to all its provisions seems to be "lecturing and hectoring" rather than working assiduously on overcoming differences of perspective. Admiral Chris Barriemakes the point that its possible the impact on Australia of any war with China could be greater than any other participant because of Australias low population. The US must operate from a few exposed facilities such as Okinawa and Guam. With that in mind, I sought the views of four of Australia's most experienced military strategists, with 100 years of high-level military and strategic experience between them,to discuss what joining the US in a war with China could mean for Australians. everything from electronics to furniture to shoes. Such possibilities seem remote at present. Have employers used high inflation as cover to make excessive profits? Beijing has already put its assets in place. Satellite image of Chinese vessels in the Whitsun Reef in a disputed zone, March 23, 2021. Credit:Maxar Technologies via AP. It runs between the Philippines and Taiwan. Until then, it is important for Washington to avoid provocations and maintain a civil discourse with Beijing. If China chooses to attack the island of Taiwan, the United States could be helpless to stop it. He believesa blockade of Taiwan by China is more likely than a cross-strait invasion. Even by 2050 our 37 million people could not amount to much alongside countries having a population base of over 100 million people many of them in our region. "Australia should take a position where averting war is a serious policy objective. It is likely to impoverish us all; it may even kill most of us if it goes nuclear. The size of the military mobilisation required to achieve this wouldinvolve calling up the reserves and activating the society at large, not just the military,well in advance of an invasion. Western submarines will play a role in restraining Chinas surface fleet. Australians could wake up one morning to the news that we are at war with China. If Australians are hearing the 'beating drums' of war, as Minister Mike Pezzullo put it, is it because Scott Morrison's Coalition government thinks banging on about China will be a winning . It has additional radars and air defence weapons on outposts in the South China Sea, which extend its IADS zone out even further, although these latter systems can be destroyed by the US. So to contribute to this discussion, Ive sought analysis from four of Australias most experienced military strategists and asked them exactly what Australias involvement in a war with China could look like. ", Any US-China war would be primarily a maritime conflict, and it would be, as we have seen, on a scale unprecedented since the Second World War. All four analysts have held the highest security clearances that its possible to have. US-China war over Taiwan would be biggest since WWII, Australian expert says. An embarrassed politician may suddenly feel compelled to enforce a vague red line. Hugh White,who is also Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University, is clear in his analysis: I do not think there is any credible chance that America, with or without Australias support, could win a war with China over Taiwan.. US soldiers, some seen here at a military exercise in Morocco earlier in June, have been deployed to battles across the world for the past 50 years. I draw here an important difference between politicians and statesmen. One real threat mistaken for a bluff. Taiwans Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said on June 3 that Taipei did not anticipate a conflict was going to break out any time soon, but we are trying to get ourselves ready. "China's leaders could discreetly offer negotiations to Taiwan's leaders during a blockade before taking the risky step of ordering an amphibious invasion. Behm says the impact on Australia of a war with China would be "profoundly and devastatingly different" from any other war this country has participated in since World War II. Washington and Beijing are locked in an intense strategic battle. "Were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years, the best scenario one might envisage for the US is a stalemate. This is a statesman-like response to the challenges we are addressing today wherein the risk of war has grown since 2017, in my opinion. China might compound this with electronic and probably some physical attacks on satellites or related infrastructure. 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In its consequences, it would be profoundly and devastatingly different. Professor Clinton Fernandes is a former intelligence officer with the Australian Army Intelligence Corps and now Professor of International and Political Studies at the University of New South Wales. "America would then have to decide whether to go to war to break the blockade.". And what would such a fight look like? Tensions between China and Taiwan have been escalating for years, with Beijing now sending fighter jets and nuclear-capable bombers into Taiwan's air defence zone on a near-daily basis. "And oh, by the way, it's just going to get harder as we get further into the . It isn't Ukraine. And given Beijings singular focus on finding a way to sink US-style aircraft carriers, their capacity to carry combat aircraft into effective range has been dramatically curtailed. But apart from that, Australia has little military value to the US. These flew out of Japan and down the east coast of Taiwan to operate near the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier battle group and the Chinese Liaoning. Maybe, that explained why President Bush and Prime Minister Howard, from the right of politics, and Mr Blair from the left of politics, shared the view about the need for the invasion.". "Firepower strikes described above would be accompanied by cyber operations to ensure information is blocked as well. "For its part, Australia is casualty averse, as it should be. Five-centuries-old saffron and ginger found preserved in shipwreck off Sweden, Chinese migrants walked a gruelling 500km to Victoria's goldfields in the 19th century. "This is the critical question. Should a war break out around the South China Sea, the US would be under pressure to quickly neutralise the roughly 10 man-made islands China has created (seen as unsinkable aircraft carriers) to use as military bases. If the US went to war with China, who would win? As president, Joe Biden has stated repeatedly that he would defend Taiwan. Iraq should have taught us that it makes no sense to support an ally in a war it cant win, and the stakes are much higher this time.. This last outpost of pre-Communist China is an embarrassing thorn in Chairman Xi Jinpings paw. This week, China suspended the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue a diplomatic mechanism for trade talksand accused Australia of "disrupt [ing] the normal exchanges and cooperation . [A war is] something that you and I may well have to confront in the next five to 10 years, he said. "This would be a far cheaper and less risky way to achieve its objectives. What War with China Would Look Like, Part 2, will be published on Tuesdayand feature interviews with Allan Behm,former head of the International Policy and Strategy Divisions of the Defence Department, and Professor Clinton Fernandes, a former intelligence officer in the Australian military. But its own submarines, combined with air and land launched missiles, could present an almost constant threat. Credit:Getty. No emergency stockpiles have been established onshore. Allan Behm, now head of the international and security program at The Australia Institute, says were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years the best potential outcome for the US is a stalemate. Show map. As Australia enjoys all the benefits of a free and open society in a stable and functioning democracy, our principles and values must extend to supporting the survival of Taiwan.. Please try again later. He says given the rate at which Chinese forces are modernising and building both capability and capacity, "a Chinese victory over the US is the more likely outcome beyond 2035". Find out more about our policy and your choices, including how to opt-out. U.S. supplies of many products could soon run low, paralyzing a vast range of businesses. And the West may not be able to do much about it. A Chinese close-in weapons system (CIWS) designed to shoot down incoming missiles during recent war games. Destroy the offensive capability of the PLAN and People . Jamie Seidel @JamieSeidel 5 min read May 25, 2020 - 11:05AM The United States just lost a battle to save Taiwan from a Chinese invasion and it's not the first time. "So, how would China prosecute the war? It is very plausible to say there is no guarantee of victory in the first phases, Lyle Goldstein, a research professor at the Naval War Colleges China Maritime Studies Institute, told Newsweek. US forces would be fully committed to the maximum of their capacity, and they would expect and indeed demand the same of us.. Certainly not in the six-to-eight minutes it could take a DF-11 A rocket to cross the 130 kilometre-wide Taiwan Strait to its target. If there is going to be a war between Taiwan and China, we will fight the war ourselves, he said. "A cross-strait invasion is the most dangerous scenario from China's perspective. We once had a praiseworthy reputation for the quality of our leadership and our officials. And that takes the issue of US-China military prowess back to the all-important issue of politics. If other countries come to our aid, that will be highly appreciated, but we will fight the war for our own survival and for our own future.. Beyond 10 years, who knows? Of all the uncertainty and conflict in the world at the moment, for Australians this surely is one of the most important discussions we must have. The Bashi Channel connects the South China Sea with the Pacific Ocean. "The irrational elements thus make direct large-scale confrontation between two nuclear powers very dangerous. Put bluntly, the repercussions of Australia joining the US in any war with China over the status of Taiwan or any other issue may have catastrophic consequences. The Peoples Liberation Army is capable of substantially subduing the US Navy in the waters around China, a Communist Party-owned newspaper boasts. Who would win in a hypothetical battle between China and Japan? Also, we do not have the equivalent of the Chilcott report to illuminate the story. And Taiwan sitting neatly between the two offers that opportunity. "Practically this limits the sinews of war available to us: they would be insufficient. Inflation and unemployment would surge, especially in the period in which the economy is repurposed for the war effort, which might include some automobile manufacturers switching to building aircraft or food-processing companies converting to production of priority pharmaceuticals. 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The context for decision making would be vitally important weighing the potential costs to the country, domestically and internationally, against the value of that cost for maintaining the ANZUS relationship. "On the other hand, if the US decided to attack China the provocation becomes essential to decision making. For China, the worst-case scenario is to have to conduct simultaneous high-intensity operations against Taiwan, the United States, Japan, and other US allies and partners. They have different opinions on a range of issues, but one thing that is striking about the four is what they agree on. It also allows the US to try to promote the notion it is not"an American war". One option to attack the man-made islands would be to send in teams of US Marine Raider commandos to destroy weapons systems. It would not require the assent of the Governor General and is entirely in the hands of the prime minister of the day. Those are easy targets. Were working to restore it. Chinas 1264 warplanes, meanwhile, are based in China. "There would also be a possibility of exceptionalism if most other countries in Asia did not get involved. Some strategists even use an east-facing map with China at the bottom to show China as being encircled and needing to break out.. An earlier government tinkered with the concept of a reduction in the ten years of warning but did almost nothing about demonstrating seriousness. Here are some tips. The United States cannot win a war against China over Taiwan, four Australian defense experts have said in a series of interviews conducted by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. The US will pursue the following war aims: 1. "China would not seek to deploy land forces to the US (nor Australia for that matter). "One can imagine the sociological fracture in Australia with funerals, commemorations, attacks on Australians of Chinese descent, the curtailing of any progressive economic reconstruction agenda for Australia.". Ukrainian, Romanian, and US Army Special . "In the past, when I was working in government, we sometimes offered ministers some indication of the possible cost in lives if things went badly in the kind of lower-level commitments that we made in the 1990s. I do not think there is any credible chance that America, with or without Australia's support, could win a war with China over Taiwan. Where are our statesmen?". Building a stronger deterrence by addressing such weaknesses is the best means of averting war. The People's Liberation Army is the military arm of the ruling Chinese Communist Party, which oversees the PLA through its Central . Admiral Chris Barrie says that with all the "overblown rhetoric" about the possibility of war against China he thinks there is a danger of forgetting that war should only ever be taken as the last means of resolving insurmountable differences between nation states. Fishing boats could push into ancestral territory, backed up by armed coast guard vessels. "It is possible that the impact on Australia could be greater than any other assailant because of our low population. Then, it was mainly Germany, and from the 1930s Japan. Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) analyst Dr Malcolm Davis disagrees. Its military planners already expect these to be overwhelmed by missiles in the opening hours of any conflict. Humans have become a predatory species. It runs between the Japanese islands of Mikako and Okinawa. If Australia sleepwalks into a war with China, as many analysts fear is happening right now, then amid our strategic slumber we should at least ask one question: what would war with China mean for Australia? The bulk of these goods is transported aboard ships along sea lanes increasingly controlled by Chinese commercial interests that are ultimately answerable to Chinas party-state. Hugh White, an emeritus professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University, has warned about the serious consequences that could arise from not adequately addressing tensions. With China's rise and democracy's decline, what will the global order look like in 2050? Earlier this month, the United States Air Force staged a demonstration involving four heavily armed F-16 fighters. Its artificial island fortresses are unsinkable outposts. Some wouldn't survive. I am 68 and I am certain we will be at war with China within my lifetime. Credit:AP. The US is suddenly no longer the world's only military superpower. Despite this, U.S. military planners would prefer to fight a conventional war. China could also weaponize its dominance of supply chains and shipping. It depends how it starts. "Even in Australia, with our record of setting up the basics of a rules-based order, governments have sometimes overlooked the provisions of the rules-based order, when it does not suit them. U.S. citizens have grown accustomed to sending their military off to fight far from home. Hugh White says a war between the US and China over Taiwan would "probably be the biggest and most disruptive war the world has seen since 1945". "Taiwan doesn't have a Plan B that's the big problem. The leaders of both Ukraine and Russia are expected to meet with China's president in the near future. Thinking of scale I am reminded that In 1944 the US alone out-produced the rest of the world combined in all war stores before the wars ended in 1945. "It may be argued that ANZUS would inevitably push Australia to war but we should not be lazy in coming [to] that conclusion. One of the reasons for that is the land force preponderance of the US over the opposing forces.