Others would be unwilling to join a US-China war, seeing it as not in their interest. This is a major reason why China is not seen as a significant threat to NATO. Other Nato members dont even come close to those massive numbers. This is a simple match. Click + to receive email alerts when new stories are published on. In short, publishing a defense strategy that can only handle one of the United States great-power rivals (which is what is expected from the forthcoming national defense strategy) is planning to fail. Only FP subscribers can submit questions for FP Live interviews. The US and other countries have already supplied Ukraine with weapons, anti-aircraft systems and intelligence capabilities. As one of the most powerful military forces in the world, wouldnt China be an asset to the alliance? Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping as he arrives for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders meeting Nov. 11, 2014. It explores Chinese history and uses extensive resources to explain Chinas current global strategy, including its attempt to build a sphere of influence and reduce America, and NATOs, global power. 22/23 SLIDES . Beijing and Moscow have invested heavily in their militaries, but only boast around 3,000 and 4,000 total aircraft respectively. The latest news, analysis, and data from the country each week. China understands Russia has its interests that China will respect. When it comes to personnel, China . As was the case in World War II, the U.S. Army would bear the brunt of defending Europe, while the Navy would concentrate on the Pacific. If you simply compare the size of the Chinese armed forces against the combined strength of NATO, it would appear that China would lose a war. Countries in Asia cannot be members of NATO. European allies should invest in armor and artillery while Asian allies buy naval mines, harpoon missiles, and submarines. While Russia desperately needs China to stabilize its economy amid unprecedented sanctions, President Xis calculus is that Russia is useful ballast in his larger battle with the U.S. and our allies. All rights reserved. It has over one million more soldiers, and another million more reservists. Putin has shown a clear interest in resurrecting the former Russian Empire, and other vulnerable Eastern European countriesPoland, Romania, or the Baltic statesmight be next. Fri, Feb 24, 2023 LOGIN Subscribe for $1 A major war in Ukraine could spill across international boundaries and threaten the seven NATO allies that border Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine. This week marks exactly one year since Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his troops to invade Ukraine. Chinese President Xi Jinping has also used his military to aggravate neighbouring Asian countries as well as the West. NATO and China are two of the most powerful forces in the world. Instead, the anti-democratic alliance between the two countries which is resentful of American hegemony and committed to tearing down the liberal world order that has prevailed for more than eight decades is growing stronger. Russias long-term economic outlook is even worse. SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australia's foreign minister said she raised Russia's invasion of Ukraine with her Chinese counterpart, telling reporters after their meeting that all countries want to see China "do the right thing" and not supply weapons to Russia. Home of the Daily and Sunday Express. Who would win a war between NATO vs Russia and China? NATO is also able to add many more reservists than China, contributing to its overall military strength. The Black Sea Grain Initiative, a deal brokered in July among Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nations, eased Russia's naval blockade and saw three key Ukrainian ports reopen. 2023 Copyright Global Affairs Explained, link to 7 Reasons Why Canada Is Not A Poor Country, link to Was Europe Ever Poor? Crucially, China strongly opposes the formation of a NATO-type alliance in Asia. 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Perhaps thousands here and few more thousands there. Although NATO is clearly larger military than China, what would happen if a war broke-out between them? In counter, Lavrov hits out at West, says Russia, India & China will . Russia would not have invaded, the war never would have started a . To find out more about the cookies and data we use, please check out our, Dear Reader, please register to read gulfnews.com, Password should have minimum 7 characters with at least one letter and number, Digital Biden put on shades and, with a heavy security entourage, strutted through the central square of Kyiv (Ukraine's capital) as if to announce that a "new . "This commitment, which I made here on Feb. 27 of last year, holds true," Scholz said, adding that the . Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 371 of the invasion But its not just the United States. and win, a nuclear war with Russia. An alliance between two of the worlds most powerful despots leading an axis of evil with Iran and North Korea poses a unique and immense threat to the democratic values we cherish. NATO has over 4,000 more combat aircraft than China does. ET, March 1, 2023. Moreover, the United States could go so far as to double defense spending (currently 2.8 percent of GDP) and still remain below its Cold War average (close to 7 percent of GDP). Following the implementation of international sanctions during the war, China provided economic relief to Russia. The combined armies of NATO have almost 10,000 more main battle tanks than China does. Watch the conversation or read the condensed transcript. What does that mean for trade and globalization? Opinion | Public vs. Private: Managing Perceptions of the War in Ukraine One-stop digest of politics, economics, and culture. Weve linked to the paperback on Amazon.com. In a series of tweets, Deverell said he was initially against the imposition of a no-fly zone by Nato in Ukraine, believing it would surely escalate the conflict. Experts opine that sooner or later US-led alliance will have to face Putin's army. The United States is al. Indeed, given that this new Cold War is every bit as dangerous as the last one, a meaningful increase in defense spending, focused on the 21st centurys emerging defense technologies, is in order. Wood said he does not know if that is necessarily true, but said Russia . When China is trying to destroy the status quo, it's not in the interest of us or the international community.". The repeated calls have somehow been so effective that a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that a broad bipartisan majority of Americans, 74 per cent, think the US should work with Nato to set up no-fly zones to protect Ukraine from Russian air strikes.. Instead, Washington should actively lead, moving from a model where Washington provides defense to allies to one where Washington contributes to allies self-defense. Former Soviet satellite Slovakia has been a NATO member since 2004, but the reality of belonging to the world's biggest military alliance really kicked in after Russia's invasion of Ukraine a year ago. This alliance of autocracies, as Steven Lee Myers aptly deemed it, is built on a mutual belief that the Wests supremacy has declined, and that as great powers, China and Russia are entitled to rule their own spheres of influence and to use brute force to suppress human rights, self-determination and democracy. It is highly unlikely that NATO as an alliance would be drawn into a conflict between China and the US. Preexisting formal alliances like NATO in Europe and bilateral alliances in Asia can be supplemented with new arrangements, such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. But the three leading Nato members, the US, France and the UK have between them at least 6,600 nuclear warheads, slightly bigger than Russias. The Western European countries (Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, Belgium, etc.) However, China has at times expressed opposition to NATO expansion in Europe. It is also almost impossible to conceive China launching an assault against either the mainland United States or Europe. The world over, countries are embarking on ambitious projects of industrial policy. On the day World War II began, George Bernard Shaw wrote, "There will be only two winners: The United States and the Soviet Union." More than eight decades later, as major powers find themselves stuck in a war in Ukraine, there seems to be just one winner this time and that county is not even a direct party to the conflict People's Republic of China. Xi Jinpings signature foreign policy is a shadow of its former self.. NATO VS RUSSIA + CHINA Military Power Comparison.Who Would Win? Click + to receive email alerts when new stories are published on Putin has found an economic lifeline in Beijing that only Washington can destroy. the outcome for the U.S. was not a good one, a new report revealed this week. Weekly update on whats driving U.S. national security policy. But to put it simply, imposing a no-fly zone is practically a declaration of war with Russia. Russia and China flew joint bomber patrols over the Pacific. Instead of asking how much territory Russia has taken in one year, one should ask in what ways are the US, EU, and NATO weakened since Feb 2022 vs Russia, China, India, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey, South Africa, etc. This year, the United States will spend $778 billion on defense compared to only $310 billion in Russia and China. So, its clear that China is not formally opposed to NATO, but it does see NATO as a key part of the Western world order. However, China can and will ask Russia to be cognizant of China's interests too and not to be blindly against China. The rise of American-made chatbots has kicked off a flurry of Chinese activity. Western Leaders Privately Say Ukraine Can't Win the War The default username below has been generated using the first name and last initial on your FP subscriber account. WARSAW, Poland (AP) NATO's chief said Wednesday that the military alliance has seen "some signs" that China may be planning to support Russia in its war in Ukraine, and strongly urged Beijing to desist from what would be a violation of international law. The country's foreign minister, Joseph Wu, has said this week that China's recent military exercises show that an invasion is being planned. But what could cause a war between China and NATO? Last week Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin, Russia's president, threw themselves into preparations to escalate, wage and win the next phase of warfare in Ukraine. Answer (1 of 8): The United States is a member of NATO, so we need not refer to the United States and NATO. And they've deployed recently upgraded . Commenting on this and other recent articles is just one benefit of a Foreign Policy subscription. The US and its allies have even ruled out a move to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine as demanded by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his supporters in the west. Before and during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, several NATO countries sent army to reinforce the alliance's eastern flank. Who would win in a war the United States and NATO VS China and Russia Despite the clear signs that were coming from Moscow for months, the alliance today looks like a deer caught in the headlights so confused it is either unable or not willing to do anything. Both on your website and other media. China has almost 150 less warships than NATO does. This should include incorporating key allies into military planning, sharing responsibilities, and devising a rational division of labor for weapons acquisition. As democracies, NATO countries need significant buy-in from their populations in order to take on a major conflict. The following twelve states signed the treaty and became the founding members: Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, United Kingdom and United States. Article 5 of the NATO treaty says that an attack on any NATO member is an attack on all. Asked whether NATO has any indication that China might be ready to provide arms or other support to Russias war, Stoltenberg said: We have seen some signs that they may be planning for that and of course NATO allies, the United States, have been warning against it because this is something that should not happen. Even if Moscow holds onto territory, the war has wrecked its future. He stressed that while NATO is no party to the Ukraine conflict its tasks are to ensure that Ukraine prevails and to prevent this war from escalating beyond Ukraine and becoming a full-fledged war between Russia and NATO., He said the main message from the meeting in Warsaw was that we will provide support to Ukraine for as long as it takes., It would be a "tragedy for the Ukrainians if President Putin wins in Ukraine, Stoltenberg said, and also dangerous for all of us because it would send the message to all authoritarian leaders that when they use military force, they get what they want.. This is a key reason why China is not a member state. FPs Ravi Agrawal spoke with two of the very best Russia experts:Angela Stent, a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and the author ofPutins World: Russia Against the West and With the Rest, and Michael Kofman, the research program director of the Russia studies program at the Center for Naval Analyses. Although we can say that China is not a direct threat to NATO, this does not mean that conflict is impossible. Twitter:@matthewkroenig. Nato will surely want to stay out of this conflict as long as possible. NATO is a European focused organization and therefore China is not directly opposed to it. Answer (1 of 62): I see alot of Americans here with an idea that such a war between NATO and Russia and China would be an easy win. Russia has invaded its' former Republics and thus causing NATO to declare war on them. Matthew Kroenig is a columnist at Foreign Policy and senior director of the Atlantic Councils Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and a professor in the Department of Government and the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. rs worth well over $400 billion. As a communist country more closely aligned with the Soviets during the Cold War, there was no possibility for China to join the alliance. US President Joe Biden vowed in May that Washington will defend Taiwan if China attacks. Thank you for supporting the site. War between Russia and China BRUCE RUSSETT ALLAN C. STAM the process of NATO expansion is on track never! FPs Ravi Agrawal spoke with two of the very best Russia experts:Angela Stent, a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and the author ofPutins World: Russia Against the West and With the Rest, and Michael Kofman, the research program director of the Russia studies program at the Center for Naval Analyses. The Peoples Republic of China is the most populous country in the world and the second largest economy. Developments in recent months have caused international concern that major nuclear-armed powers could be dragged into direct conflict. Moscow's military has over 12,000 at its disposal compared to Beijing's 5000. Finally, if youre interested in NATOs position in the modern world, check out the book Battlegrounds: The Fight to Defend the Free World by H. R. McMaster. See here for the latest updates. NATOs chief says the military alliance has seen some signs that China may be planning to support Russia in its war in Ukraine, and strongly urged Beijing to desist from what would be a violation of international law. Geography plays a key role in the outcome of conflicts. Daily Briefing: War in Ukraine: Kyiv Sends Reinforcements to Besieged Policy-makers in the American seats of power clearly want to prevent even the weak but potentially growing cooperation between Germany with its European allies and Russia or China, which had been . NATO has one hundred and fifty more warships than China. So unused to being challenged, the United States has become so filled with anxiety over China that sober responses are becoming nearly impossible. In September 2018, Russia hosted the militaries of China and Mongolia as a part of the Vostok 2018 military exercise. There is the definite possibility of conflict between the two over Taiwan. China, Russia and South Africa are holding naval drills in the Indian Ocean this week. The Biden administration initially hoped to put relations with Russia on a stable and predictable footing to focus on China, but Putin had other ideas, as the world is now seeing in Ukraine. The American CIA later confirmed that the bombing was directed by them but continued to state it was an accident. By signing up, I agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use and to occasionally receive special offers from Foreign Policy. Security Russia. Opportunistic firms in Asia and Europe have already begun to relocate investments to the United States. It is unlikely, although not impossible, that China launches a pre-emptive strike against US forces in Asia as part of an assault on Taiwan. Chinas population is significantly larger than NATOs. As Ukraine War Enters Second Year, Russia is Pushed Firmly into Chinese Emma Ashford: You know, I spent all weekend waiting for World War III to start, but . Jessica Chen Weiss, formerly a senior advisor for policy planning at the State Department under the Biden administration, makes the case that the United States is becoming consumed by competition with China, a strategy that could lead to dangerous conflict. It has over 1.4 billion people, compared to the combined populations of NATO countries 946 million. Some NATO members, such as Albania, North Macedonia and Montenegro, are closely linked economically to China. Others have expressed hope that Washington can peel these powers apart or even align with Russia against China, but these are not realistic solutions. This growing idea was notably floated by the UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss last week. Washington Must Prepare for War With Both Russia and China, Want to read more on this topic or region? Recently, China held military drills near Taiwan after US politician Nancy Pelosi ignored warnings by Beijing and visited the island. Russia and China slam NATO after alliance raises alarm - Los Angeles Times NATO countries together maintain 15 battalions with around 130 tanks in the same region and around 90 of those are the American M-1s on their temporary rotation. For there to be a war between China and NATO, China would have to attack a NATO country. Ukraines economy and infrastructure have been dealt blows that will take decades to recover from. Air power is key in modern conflicts. The U.S. Army should prioritize Europe while the U.S. Navy takes the Indo-Pacific and a larger U.S. Air Force plays a significant role in both theaters. Reply. Originally Posted by Renegade. Geographically, the combined territory of all the countries NATO is larger than China although both are enormous. More importantly, who will win if Nato decides to declare war on Russia, the worlds most formidable nuclear power? Just NATO, will do. All information comes from wikipedia.org, cia.gov, icanw.org, government websites and press releases. Firstly, NATO has by far the most military personnel with over five million active troops thanks largely to the US military. In other words, there is a serious risk of simultaneous major-power wars in both Europe and the Indo-Pacific. China refused to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine. There are currently 28 member countries. Instead, Washington and its allies should develop a defense strategy capable of deterring and, if necessary, defeating Russia and China at the same time. It also explores how the Western world, including NATO, should respond. (Required). It is not in their strategic interest to do so and there is little reason why they would. Well my friend is actually in the army an officer. The NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade is a major cause of hatred for the alliance among some of the Chinese population. They may not be able to stay out of this for long. China's increased aggression against Taiwan and in the South China Sea is another point of hostility. With over one million more frontline troops, it is clear that NATO is much more powerful than China. We must also make clear that China stands to benefit more from inclusion in the U.S.-led world, not standing alone with Russia, and should keep diplomatic lines open in order to avoid unintended conflict. But (Ankara continues) to have some challenges with Sweden., He said he welcomed the fact that he and Erdogan agreed to a meeting soon of experts and officials in Brussels from the three countries involved to look into how we can make progress also on the ratification of Sweden as a full NATO ally., Follow APs coverage of the war at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine, 24/7 coverage of breaking news and live events.